Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has got something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
